The KERB APPEAL Pre-Election Report

As I was ruminating on the issues of the day to determine a column for this week, I decided that I would do what everyone else is doing and tell you what is going to happen in the elections next week.  It’s like the sports guys in August who predict what team is going to win the Super Bowl.  Except for them, after the big game in February, you can’t seem to find anywhere what those predictions were. For me, on the other hand, you will be able to judge me in the next 5 days.  That’s right.  Ok judge me… I don’t get paid for any of these prediction’s and if I’m wrong,… hey “sorry” in advance.

While the Republicans had been favored to make gains in Congress since the beginning of the year, the Democrats were given a ray of hope when the decision in the abortion case, Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was leaked by someone in the Supreme Court.  This gave the Democrats another issue in this election cycle other than Trump hoping they could distract the electorate away from crime, inflation, immigration, gas prices, political incompetence, educational decline, critical race theory, cancel culture, and pronouns.

While the abortion issue stayed the decline of the Democrats in the polls throughout the summer and into September, in the last few weeks momentum has shited back to the Republicans.  While I understand that polling has been horrible over the last few cycles, the polling companies have been trying to desperately figure out how to contact voters, what the correct sample sizes should be, and how to figure out who is lying.  I don’t know if they have put an algorithm together to determine how many people are avoiding them or outright lying, but a look at past elections has shown that Republicans have been undercounted anywhere from 1.5%-5%.  So, the theory that I am using is that if the candidates are tied going into election day, it’s bad news for the Democrats unless they have late momentum.  This year the Republicans appear to have the momentum, and the polls are close five days before the elections.  That is good news for Republicans. 

Another caveat that seems different this year is that the people seem very quiet.  At least in Colorado, all the noise is from the campaigns.  Yard signs are few and far between.  Rallies are small.  Social media is on fire about crime and inflation, but it is unclear whether the general populace is blaming the Democrats or whether they are looking to the Republicans to save them.  It is hard to tell what this means.  Is it with the polarization in this country, people are just afraid to openly declare their political views, or after virtually nonstop campaigning since Trump was elected in 2016, are the people so tired of the whole system, they are just worn out and won’t vote.

I use the Real Clear Politics (RPC) database which is not a single poll but an amalgamation of a number of public independent polls usually spread out over the prior two weeks.  As a result, RCP gets rid of the outlier polls, and is more accurate over a length of time, but this methodology can miss late swings in voter sentiment close to an election.

Let the games begin!  On to the predictions…

The US House of Representatives

Looks like the House is going to have a Republican majority.  The current House is split 222 Democrats to 212 Republicans with one vacancy, so it won’t take much to flip to the House to the Republicans.  Routinely, the party that holds the Presidency gets whacked in the mid-term elections since the grand promises made in the Presidential campaign never seem to work out, and the public becomes unhappy. In 2006, Bush lost 30 House seats. In 2010, Obama lost 63 House seats. In 2014, Obama lost 14 House seats, and in 2018, Trump lost 42.

The only recent exceptions were in 1998 when Clinton picked up 5 House seats when the dotcom economy was going great, and the country felt sorry for him about his impeachment, and in 2002, when George Bush picked up 8 seats a year after 9/11 when we were united in fighting the war against terror.  I think that this year will be more aligned with historic public discontent than the Clinton-Bush exceptions of 1998 and 2002.

With that background, the best guess is there will be at least 225 Republicans (majority is 218 seats) and 175 Democrats with 35 toss ups.  You may ask how can I say with assurance that 225 Republican seats and 175 Democrat seats are safe or likely to go to one party or another? Some districts are so Democrat or so Republican that it is inconceivable that the opposition party could ever win.  There was an old phrase that referred to Southern Democrats as “yellow dog” democrats in that these voters would vote for a yellow dog before they would vote for any Republican. The same holds true across the country for most Democrat and Republican districts.  As proof of this theory that party may matter more than the individual candidate, 5 people have been elected to Congress despite being dead.

I know, I know.  We all heard Nancy Pelosi predict that the Democrats would hold the majority in the House.  She is a good cheer leader but a bad predictor.  I won’t use the “L” word. At age 82, I suspect that this will be her last rodeo.  She will win reelection because she is in one of those yellow dog districts in San Francisco, but don’t know if she will even last another two years while she is relegated to the minority.

The US Senate

The new Senate majority is a little tougher to predict.  Currently there are 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and 2 Independents (Bernie Sanders- VT and Angus King- ME) who always vote with the Democrats anyway so we will go forward with 50/50.  Since the Senate has 6-year terms, only 1/3 of the seats are up for election every two years.  This year there are 34 Senate seats up for reelection and one special election in Oklahoma for a total of 35.  Of the 35 seats, 21 are currently held by Republicans, and 14 are held by Democrats.  

The seats are categorized as “safe”, “likely”, “leaners” and “toss ups”. Of the 21 Republican seats up for election, 14 are safe or “yellow dog” seats.  Of the 14 Democrat seats that are in play, 3 are “yellow dog” Democrat seats.  These allocations are based on history confirmed by polling.  While partisans (and fund-raisers) on both sides are looking for that upset, that David vs Goliath victory,,,almost always, no matter how bad the polling is, Goliath wins.

Then we have 3 Democrat (Illinois, New York and Vermont) and 2 Republican (Iowa and Missouri) seats as “likely” winners.  These seats are not considered competitive, but polling shows them a little closer than one would have guessed so to cover themselves, the political guessers have designated them as “likely”.  If the likely R or D does not win, it usually means big trouble for the party that lost the seat, and losses won’t be confined to just that one race. Losing a likely pick usually indicates that political tsunami that everyone talks about.

Then there are the “leaners” where the margin currently favors one party, but it is still close, and polling could be wrong.  There are three Democrat leaners (Colorado, Connecticut and Washington) and 4 Republican leaners, (North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Utah).

Finally, we get to the toss ups that everyone pays attention to. For these, no pollster is willing to put their credibility on the line to predict.  Remember these pollsters that make these predictions make money on ads in their publications and sell poll data in this and future elections. This is their business, and if they are wrong, really wrong, it can hurt future sales. This is why there were such shock waves throughout the polling industry in 2016 and beyond when the polls were so far off.

Using the Real Clear Politics data, I have given the likely and leaning seats to their respective parties which would bring the Republicans to 48 Republican seats, compared to 46 for the Democrats, leaving 6 toss up seats.  Democrats would have to get 4 of the 6 toss up races to get back to their 50 seats that would allow them to control the Senate with the Vice President breaking ties while the Republicans have to win 3 of the 6 to get to 51 seats.

Toss Ups

New Hampshire

In the toss ups, I predict that Maggie Hassan, the incumbent Democrat senator will hang on. She is currently up on her opponent in the Real Clear Politics average by 3.4%.  Trying to predict polling error, RCP says that from 2016 to 2020, New Hampshire polls undercounted the GOP by 5% which is good for Don Bolduc, Hassan’s opponent.  Another issue for Hassan is that Chris Sununu, the Republican governor who is running for reelection, is currently +13% on his opponent which will require New Hampshirites to split their tickets.  However, these voters are used to splitting tickets more than those in other states, and Hassan, an old hand in New Hampshire, has survived these close elections before. 

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, I believe that Ron Johnson will hold on to his seat against Wisconsin Lt Gov, Mandala Barnes.  Barnes is a progressive who has argued against cash bail, and the crime issue is hurting him.  Johnson is currently up 3.3% in the RPC average with the Marquette Law School poll putting him up by 6% up from a virtual tie only one month ago.  Wisconsin also has a GOP polling undercount of 3.7%, which if true, would give Johnson a 7-point edge.  Meanwhile Tony Evers the incumbent Democrat Governor, is in a virtual tie with his Republican opponent, Tim Michaels, after having had a 3% lead in September.  It looks like Johnson may help Michaels to the Governorship rather than Evers being a drag on Johnson.  

Nevada

In Nevada, I am picking Adam Laxalt, the former Nevada Attorney General over Democrat incumbent, Catherine Cortez Masto.  Polling has Laxalt up 1.2% which is a virtual tie but a more recent poll has the number at 4%.  GOP polling undercount in Nevada is 1.5%.  It still isn’t known how powerful the Las Vegas Service Employee Union is going to be in this election.  There is a large Hispanic population, but it does not appear to be as united on behalf of the Democrats as it has been in the past. I’m going with my polling rule that Republicans win if they are tied going into election day.

Arizona

In Arizona, Republican, Blake Masters is down 1.3% against Mark Kelly, the incumbent Senator and former astronaut. Kelly is also the husband of Gabby Giffords, a former member of Congress, who was shot at a campaign event in 2011 and is a prominent antigun advocate.  Masters has never led in this race and has been handicapped by his association with Trump. The wild card in this is the campaign of Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Arizona governor.  She has recently surged from a virtual tie in mid-October to a 5.6% lead based on her aggressive campaign, and Katie Hobbs, the Democrat Secretary of State, refusing to debate Lake claiming she won’t debate conspiracy theorists.    

The immigration issue is also important here with the Democrats trying to avoid it while Republicans are proposing to defy federal rules to build a wall of their own on the border.  I think that Lake’s surge may take Masters over the top for a late night win. Arizona has a 1.6% polling undercount against the GOP.

Georgia

In Georgia, football star, Herschel Walker, was running 5% behind Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock in early October but has erased that lead and is currently in a virtual tie.  Warnock was elected for the first time in a special election in 2020 in the controversial December 2020 run-off elections after the Trump defeat. Warnock’s victory is attributed to Trump telling Republicans that the Georgia election system was rigged which depressed Republican voting in the runoff election.

This time Warnock is going for a full term.  As a progressive, he is demonstrably soft on crime and ads have been running against him that appear to show that he ran over his ex-wife’s foot with his car while they were having an argument. 

Meanwhile, Walker has had difficulty with two women coming forward to claim he got them pregnant and paid for their abortions despite his being currently pro-life.  The latest allegation was made several days ago, and the fallout has not been measured. 

On the other hand, the incumbent Governor, Brian Kemp, is running an 8.3% lead over progressive, Stacey Abrams.  Although the trend is running red, the particular issues make this race impossible to predict.  Nevertheless, I would give this to Warnock but would not be surprised with a Walker win.  Polling undercounts Republicans only 1.4% in Georgia.  There are more than two candidates running, and this race will go to a runoff in December if neither candidate gets 50%

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Lt Governor, John Fetterman is running against TV doctor, Mehmet Oz. Oz who was supported by Trump beat hedge fund manager, David McCormack, by less than 1000 votes in the Pennsylvania Republican primary.  Oz has had difficulty gaining traction throughout the campaign being behind by 9 points in mid-summer.  Like all the Republican candidates, he has made a surge in October and is currently in a virtual tie. 

What is different about this race is that Fetterman had a major stroke several days before the Democrat primary.  He told everyone that he was recovering and would be fine, and as a result, the Democrats did not replace him on the ballot. However recent media attention has begun to focus the effects of the stroke which manifests itself on his inability to talk or understand what is being said to him.  Last Tuesday night, Fetterman debated Oz and by all neutral accounts, it was a disaster for Fetterman.  It clearly showed that despite having a special closed caption screen for the debate so he could read the questions, he had extreme difficulty in forming responses. 

While most Democrats made excuses for him and praised him for his “courage”, others criticized his campaign for even putting him in that position which showed him to be medially unqualified.  The debate caused a major stir as most people did not realize he was so bad. The the post-debate polls have not come out yet to determine how much damage the debate has done to Fetterman’s campaign.  Fetterman, a progressive, is also soft on crime having tried to find a way to get convicted murderers out of jail on parole sooner.  Another complicating factor is that 680,000 voters have already cast their ballots before the debate.

With Fetterman’s performance in the debate and the Republican surge in late October across the country and in Pennsylvania, Oz has a very good opportunity to win this seat for the Republicans.  Pennsylvania polls have undercounted Republicans by 4.2%.

My prediction is that for the reasons above, Republicans will take at least 4 of the 6 toss ups and hold a 52-48 majority going into the next Congress.

What to look for Tuesday night

The polls will close at 7pm EST in New Hampshire.  Look to see how Maggie Hassan is doing.  If she is losing, it could be a very long night for Democrats.  Polls close at 730 pm EST in North Carolina and Ohio.  If Ted Budd (NC) or JD Vance (OH) struggle, the Democrats may escape. 

Also for fun, take a look at the New York Governor’s race with Kathy Hochul going against Republican Lee Zeldin in a blue state that is far closer than it should be.  In the debate against Zeldin this week when Zeldin was talking about the need to put criminals in jail, Hochul said waving her hand, “I don’t know why that is so important to you.”  I think maybe Zeldin is booking about a billion ads to play that part of the debate to New York City residents.   

Another race to watch is Democrat Gretchen Witmer vs. newcomer Tudor Dixon who is also in a race that is far closer for Witmer than anyone could have imagined.

Turn on the TV at 6 pm Mountain Time with a glass of wine or a couple of beers and have some fun.  Enjoy. With a new Congress for 2023, we’ll be back to our policy problems next week.